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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It often serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. However, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

But the latest competition is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime strugglers improving together. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still